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As Good As It Gets: The World’s Leading Growth Economy

By | INDIA, News | One Comment

Goldman Sachs have just published their Annual Global Review “Global Economics Analyst: As Good as it Gets and it includes some very illuminating predictions for the next two years and, in particular, what lies in store for the small but influential set of Growth Markets which together make up the likely powerhouse of future economic growth. Looking at that small group of countries, Goldman’s are “most positive”, more positive than they are about any other economy in the world, about India where they are  projecting GDP growth of 8.0% in 2018 rising to a staggering  8.3% by 2019.

Those figures might not mean very much on the page (or screen) but compare them with the equivalent figures for with the United States where, even with the kick-start of recent fiscal reforms implemented by the Trump Administration, the forecast percentages are 2.5% (2018) and 1.8% (2019). The United Kingdom comes in at an even more paltry 1.3% and 1.6% for the same two years.

This stark dichotomy between Developed Markets like the United States and the United Kingdom (DM) and Growth Markets like India (GM), is also borne out by Goldman’s individual sector forecasts (contained in the same report), which project an average 5.6% growth across GM for 2018 against a mere 2.3% for DM over the same period; and GMs are also expected to strengthen still further into 2019 with the equivalent average figures being 5.7% against 1.9% for DM (nearly three times as much).

All of this graphically underpins one of the key portfolio strategies by Red Ribbon Asset Management adopted when it was founded more than a decade ago: that no investment portfolio can be considered properly balanced unless at least 10% of its holdings are deployed in Growth Markets and, of course, that means India in particular, which is now likely to return GDP growth at figures nearly double that of its other Emerging Market counterparts, never mind seriously outstripping its closest DM competition).

But having said all of that, GM and DM Markets are still much more connected than you might think: shocks in one can still cause turbulence in the other.

Take,for example, the conventional view that Growth Markets are  much more at risk than other economies from tighter Federal Reserve Policies in the United States, having historically partially fixed exchange rates to the US Dollar with the result that they are constrained to adopt tighter money each time the Fed hikes its rate (as it has just done of course). This perceived vulnerability was graphically illustrated by the severe tightening in Chinese currency markets over the last decade in response to hawkish Fed shocks in the period up to 2016 (and in the light of the dollar peg which was in place over the same period).

So, taking just that one example, what does this underlying feature of connectivity  mean in practice for the future Growth Markets and India in particular? Does it give rise to any additional vulnerability.

Well, In india’s case the answer would seem to be “no”.

Goldman’s Report is “optimistic” that India will be able to weather any such currency storms better than it’s GM counterparts because, following the dollar adjustments of recent years, it is “much more resilient…enabling it to cope better with a gradually tighter Federal Reserve policy”; and in major part that is because of the financial and infrastructure policies of Prime Minister Modi’s Government which have made it much more resilient and shock resistant than its near neighbours in the GM coterie.

So, good news all round…. Perhaps, to adopt Goldmans’ phrase, as good as it gets with India now seemingly set to harvest the benefits of being the leading GM economy, with little or any of of the drawbacks.

It should all make for a happy new year…

 

Red Ribbon CEO, Suchit Punnose said:

Red Ribbon has long held the view that no investment portfolio can be considered properly balanced unless at least 10% of its holdings are deployed in Growth Markets and, of course, for us that has always meant India in particular. So it is encouraging to learn that the latest Goldman Sachs Report on global economic trends (appropriately named “As Good as it Gets”) is still recording historic GM growth at more than double that of Developed Markets and it also forecasts that the disparity will grow wider between the two sectors (in favour of Growth Markets) over the next two years.

I am particularly fortified to read the reports conclusions on India which it finds to be much more resilient than its GM counterparts when it comes to global economic shocks such as that we have just experienced with the Fed tightening dollar rates.

That’s good to hear, even if it’s something some of us have long suspected…

“A Goldmine of Opportunity Waiting to be Tapped”: Eco Tourism in India

By | INDIA, News | 2 Comments

The Indian Government publishes an annual Economic Survey on trends and market conditions on the subcontinent and the Finance Minister last month tabled the latest of these before Parliament. For the first time, it is the second such report to be published within a year, perhaps reflecting the current dizzying pace of economic change across India, the fastest growing large economy in the world. And the second part of the 2017 Survey has some interesting things to say about the future of Indian Tourism, and Indian Eco Tourism in particular.

The Survey reports that Tourism and Hospitality together account for a healthy 9% of GDP in India, generating $117.7 billion last year and expected to climb to $418.9 billion by 2022. Foreign exchange earnings derived from tourism in 2016 amounted to $22.9 billion (8.8% more than the equivalent 2015 figure). Tourism and Hospitality is, in the words of the Economic Survey: “…a goldmine of opportunity waiting to be tappedIndia continues to charm international tourists with its vast cultural and natural resources.”

The Government has certainly not been slow to encourage tourist growth with a series of innovative policies such as the e-Visa programme (which now covers 161 countries): the system is a marked improvement on the old and notoriously inefficient paper-based process, with a total of no less than 1,079,696 e-Visa holders visiting India during 2016: 142.5% of the 2015 figure. But look back at those numbers from the Economic Survey again: overseas earnings, to which initiatives like the e-Visa system are directed, account for less than a quarter of the overall revenue in the sector. The rest is made up of business and domestic travel. What is the Government doing to promote that part of the goldmine?

That’s where Eco Tourism comes in.

According to this year’s Green Lodging Trends Report domestic and business travellers are more and more choosing their hotel accommodation by reference to its green credentials, and the report comes to three particularly striking findings on the basis of an extensive survey of leading hotels:

  • Offsetting carbon consumption to achieve emission reductions is an increasingly important factor with hotel guests as well as with businesses (likely to be paying for their stay): “the topic is hitting home more than ever”;
  • The majority of travellers (business and recreational) actively prefer eco-friendly destinations and are prepared to pay more to get them;
  • When asked: “to what degree does climate change drive you to make operational improvements and investments”, 84% of hoteliers responded that it did and 40% said that it had a “significant impact”, an increase of 12% from last year (in itself an expression of the practical, operational impact of the first two (consumer driven) points made above.

Eco Hotels is the world’s first carbon-neutral hotel brand, supporting sustainable living without compromising on standards of hospitality; and it is a model for sustainable hospitality projects on the subcontinent. Red Ribbon Asset Management is the founding investor in EcoLodge, a key Eco Hotels brand. Having started in 2012 from its flagship Hotel in Cochin, Eco Lodge is now well on the way to rolling out its target of 10,000 eco friendly rooms in India by 2020; and given the trends signaled in this month’s Economic Survey, the brand seems certain to remain at the vanguard of this paradigm shift in the sector.

Read the latest Indian Economic Survey here: indiabudget.nic.in/survey.asp

Read the Green Lodging Trends Report here: www.greenlodgingnews.com/green-lodging-survey/

Read about EcoHotels and EcoLodge here: www.theeco.com/about_us.php

Red Ribbon

At Red Ribbon we understand that the transition towards a resilient global economy will be led by well-governed businesses in mainstream markets, striving to reduce the environmental impact of their production processes on society at large and on the environment as well.

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